While President Donald Trump and other Republicans rage about “rigged” vote counting in the Los Angeles mayoral race, political analysts are pointing out a fundamental flaw in their accusations.
Raman Surges Past Pratt
On Sunday, progressive city council member Nithya Raman narrowly overtook reality star and right-wing candidate Spencer Pratt for second place in the local race. This likely sends her to a November runoff against incumbent Mayor Karen Bass.
Raman’s small but decisive surge in votes set off Trump, who claimed Republicans were being “cheated” in California’s “crooked” elections in a Truth Social post. He was joined by other conservatives who questioned how Raman could leapfrog Pratt so long after the election, despite California’s well-known delays in counting mail-in ballots.
California's Counting Process
With more mail-in ballots to count than any other state, California’s process is drawn out by statute. Ballots postmarked by Election Day can arrive at election offices and be counted up to seven days later. So far, only 83% of votes have been counted.
Analyst Debunks Conspiracy Theory
CNN’s data analyst Harry Enten highlighted a major flaw in the Republican logic, focusing on strategy for establishment-backed candidate Bass. “This is the dumbest conspiracy theory I have ever heard because the Democratic establishment and Karen Bass wanted Spencer Pratt in the runoff,” Enten said on “CNN News Central” Monday morning.
Enten explained that Bass would have a “real race on her hands” if Raman is her rival, while she was “crushing” Pratt in the polls. His numbers showed the mayor had an 18-point edge on Pratt but would actually fall four points behind Raman in a potential matchup. “She wanted to face Pratt; she wanted nothing to do with Raman,” he said. “That’s why these conspiracy theories, simply put, make no sense, people.”
Favorability Figures
Enten also presented favorability figures: Raman had a net positive rating of +5, while Bass was at -22 and Pratt at -32. This further undermines the idea that Democrats would rig the race to favor Raman over Pratt.
Though it is still too early to officially call the race, Monday morning numbers showed Raman holding about a 3,100-vote lead over Pratt. California law gives election officials a full 30 days to process ballots.
