Despite a year marked by referendum threats, court battles, and renewed sovereignty rhetoric, Canadians appear less worried about the prospect of Quebec and Alberta separatism than they were a year ago, according to a new poll.
The survey, conducted for the Association for Canadian Studies (ACS), indicates that concern over separation has cooled since last spring. Respondents view both movements with less urgency compared to those polled in May 2025.
Declining Concern
In the latest poll, only 26% of all respondents said they were worried about Alberta separating, and just 18% expressed concern about Quebec. This marks a significant drop from the previous year, when 52% of Canadians believed the threat of Alberta separation should be taken very seriously, and 42% said the same for Quebec.
Among residents of those provinces, the decline is also notable. In May 2025, 63% of Albertans and 47% of Quebecers felt the threat was serious. Now, 39% of Albertans are worried about their province leaving Canada, while 41% of Anglophones in Quebec are anxious about Quebec separatism.
Reasons for Cooling Sentiment
ACS President Jack Jedwab attributed the reduced concern to recent political and legal developments. The Alberta Court of King's Bench struck down the Stay Free Alberta petition, which aimed to force a referendum on separation, ruling that the province failed to consult First Nations on treaty rights. This decision came just before the poll was conducted.
Premier Danielle Smith later announced that the October referendum would be modified to ask whether the province should remain part of Canada or begin the legal process for another separation vote. Jedwab noted that this shift has diluted the urgency of the movement.
In Quebec, the Parti Québécois has lost ground ahead of the fall general election, with recent polls showing them nearly tied with the Liberals and the Coalition Avenir Québec surging under new leader Premier Christine Fréchette. Jedwab suggested that the PQ has softened its stance on sovereignty, making it less of an immediate issue.
Regional Variations
Albertans remain the most concerned about their own province's separation, with 39% expressing worry. In Quebec, Anglophones are the most anxious, with 41% concerned about sovereignty. Overall, however, the poll shows a broader trend of cooling separatist fears across Canada.
Jedwab concluded that while the debate remains loud, the actual concern among Canadians has diminished, particularly in Quebec, where many feel they have seen this political drama before. In Alberta, there is still uncertainty about the future, but the immediate threat appears to have subsided.
