How does the name “Premier Naheed Nenshi” sound to you? Recent polls show UCP Premier Danielle Smith is underwater, meaning those who disapprove of her job performance outnumber those who approve. The one consolation for Smith is that Opposition Leader Naheed Nenshi of the NDP isn’t much more popular. And Smith’s UCP remains several points ahead of Nenshi’s NDP in most voter-preference polls. If an election were held today, the likely result would be another UCP majority.
So why am I talking about a Nenshi government? Because if the outrage-spewing, demand-making, tantrum-throwing separatists of the Alberta Prosperity Project and Stay Free Alberta carry through with their threat to undermine Smith and destabilize the UCP, that’s about the only path for the NDP to win next year’s provincial election.
Separatist anger and the UCP leadership
Smith has proposed a referendum question for this fall that basically asks Albertans whether they want to remain in Canada or have the province commence a process that will lead to a straightforward “stay or leave” question. I know the separatists are angry with the Trudeau-appointed federal judge who decided Elections Alberta couldn’t even verify all the signatures they collected for a “stay or leave” vote because of lack of advance consultation with First Nations.
This is as frustrating a decision as there could be because no other individual or group gets to stand in the way of a law or referendum before it is even approved. But Justice Shaina Leonard placed the desires of Alberta’s 284,000 Indigenous residents ahead of the will of the province’s five million people. I get why that is infuriating to the thousands of separatist volunteers who stood out on freezing, windswept street corners all winter collecting signatures for a true independence vote.
Appeal and alternative referendum
But the province is appealing Leonard’s ruling. And in the meantime, Smith’s two-part question gets around the immediate need for the province to consult First Nations before holding a vote. Besides, do the separatist leaders really think this fall’s referendum will produce significantly less support for separation than a simple yes or no vote? Somehow they’re sure they’d win a plain “stay or leave” vote, but Smith’s referendum might significantly suppress support for separation.
Gimme a break, a vote for beginning the process to hold a full-fledged independence vote is going to produce pretty much the same level of support as an actual referendum over leaving. Participate in the campaign. Organize your supporters and try to convince voters to go with Smith’s Plan B. After the votes are counted, we’ll all have a pretty good idea of how much support there is for full independence.
The UCP’s bylaws allow 22 of the party’s 87 constituency associations to force a leadership review. But they all have to pass the very same motion to force the review. If the separatists succeed in destabilizing the UCP, Nenshi’s fortunes could improve dramatically, potentially paving the way for an NDP victory in the next election.
